The holiday is approaching, and the fluctuation range of steel prices will be limited next week. [SMM Steel Industry Chain Weekly Report]

Forecast for Next Week: Limited Price Fluctuations Expected as Holiday Approaches This week, the ferrous metals series rebounded slightly. On the news front, at the beginning of the week, the PBOC kept the one-year and five-year LPR unchanged at 3.1% and 3.6%, respectively. On Monday, the Korea Customs Service stated that an increasing number of companies are attempting to disguise foreign products as Korean exports, mostly from China, to evade the comprehensive tariffs imposed by US President Trump. The Korea Customs Service has established a special task force to prevent illegal export activities. On Tuesday, April 22, US President Trump publicly acknowledged that the current tariffs on Chinese exports are too high and are expected to be significantly reduced, marking a softening of his stance on his signature tariff policy, which has alleviated some of the market's pessimism regarding the trade war. Towards the end of the week, according to China's Trade Remedy Information Network, on April 24, South Korea decided to impose a four-month provisional anti-dumping duty on hot-rolled carbon or alloy steel medium-thickness plates originating from China, effective until August 23, 2025. In the spot market, steel prices stopped falling and returned to positive territory, and with the Labour Day holiday approaching, market transactions improved. Looking ahead to next week, the current fundamental contradictions in the steel market are not prominent, and the pre-holiday stocking demand will support ferrous metal prices to some extent. However, due to the off-season and export impacts, the apparent demand for the five major materials is slowly pulling back, and the steel price increase driven by the recovery of pessimistic sentiment is expected to be limited. Iron Ore: Labour Day Restocking Drives Market Transactions, Prices May Continue to Rise Next Week This week, iron ore prices continued to rise slightly. Overseas shipments declined slightly, but port arrivals fell sharply by 25.3%, remaining at low levels. Daily pig iron production continued to grow, and with the Labour Day holiday approaching, some steel mills began pre-holiday restocking, leading to robust demand for iron ore and an increase in port pick-up volume. Market sentiment cooled due to the US-China trade war, but high pig iron production and Labour Day restocking demand supported ore prices. Iron ore prices are expected to continue to hold up well next week, but the increase will be limited. Looking ahead to next week, overall supply-side changes are minimal. As the Labour Day holiday approaches, steel mills' restocking demand will further release, supporting iron ore consumption. However, uncertainties in US-China tariff policies and the marginal weakening of end-use demand will constrain the upside room for prices. Ore prices are expected to continue to rise next week, but the increase will be limited. Coke: Rigid Demand Exists, Second Round of Price Increase Expected Next Week On the supply side, coke producers have profit margins, and production enthusiasm is high. Coke shipments are smooth, and the supply-demand pattern is favorable. On the demand side, steel mills' daily pig iron production is high, creating rigid demand for coke, and some steel mills are slightly restocking ahead of the Labour Day holiday. In terms of raw material fundamentals, coal mines maintain normal operations, and supply is stable. Downstream procurement is mainly based on previous orders, and trade links are cautious in purchasing. New orders for coal mines are few, shipments are weak, auction transaction prices have fallen, and the number of failed auctions has increased, leading to a weakening in the coking coal spot market. In summary, the coke fundamentals are healthy, and there is rigid demand, but cost support is insufficient. The coke market is expected to remain stable in the short term, and the second round of coke price increases is expected to be implemented. Rebar: Tight Resources in Some Markets, Prices to Continue Rangebound Fluctuations Before Holiday This week, rebar prices fluctuated upward, with the nationwide average price at 3,199 yuan/mt, up 31 yuan/mt WoW. On the supply side, recent billet orders at blast furnace steel mills in east China have been good, with some manufacturers' billet orders for May-June almost fully booked, leading to expectations of reduced finished product output. Steel mills in other regions are profitable in rebar production and have no plans to cut production. Recently, steel scrap has been difficult to collect, and electric furnace mills have poor production efficiency, mostly maintaining previous production levels, which are likely to remain at medium to low levels in the future. On the demand side, there were occasional periods of increased transactions this week, mostly concentrated in after-hours trading. Downstream sectors have gradually started restocking before the holiday, and overall demand is moderate. It is understood that some regions have recently experienced shortages of certain specifications, with some differentiation between regions. Coastal market demand is moderate, while steel mills are shifting production to billets and other products, leading to a significant decline in building material inventories and relatively tight intermediate specifications. However, demand in some markets remains average, and steel mills are actively cutting production to support prices, resulting in tight resources across multiple specifications. Looking ahead, supply-side pressure is not significant, and there may still be reductions in May. However, the tight funding situation for construction projects in April has not improved, and the sustainability of future demand is questionable. In the weak supply-demand balance phase, fundamental-driven price fluctuations are limited, and the market will continue to be driven by sentiment or raw material factors. The RB2510 contract is expected to trade in the range of 3,000-3,250 before the holiday. HRC: Pre-Holiday Restocking May Continue, HRC Prices Expected to Rebound Slightly Next Week This week, HRC prices fluctuated. In the spot market, trading activity was moderate, and downstream end-user purchases increased, leading to improved overall market transactions compared to the previous week. HRC inventories in mainstream cities continued to decline. Looking ahead, on the macro front, US President Trump publicly acknowledged on April 22 that the current tariffs on Chinese exports are too high and are expected to be significantly reduced, marking a softening of his stance on tariff policy. On the cost side, iron ore prices are expected to remain strong before the holiday, and coke price increases have temporarily stalled, strengthening HRC cost support. In terms of fundamentals, end-use demand has exceeded expectations, and downstream end-users may continue to restock before the Labour Day holiday, leading to a further decline in HRC inventories. In summary, HRC fundamentals have minor contradictions, and demand resilience is strong. The most-traded HRC contract is expected to trade in the range of 3,170-3,250 next week, with a slight rebound in HRC prices expected, but the upside room is limited. Steel Scrap: Labour Day Logistics Constraints Lead to Decline in Scrap Arrivals, Market Gradually Shows Stable to Strong Trend On the supply side, influenced by macro news and rebar futures trends, merchants have slowed their shipment pace, and scrap arrivals in some regions have fluctuated slightly. On the demand side, with the Labour Day holiday approaching, some steel mills with insufficient inventories have restocking needs to ensure production during the holiday, driving an increase in scrap demand. Looking ahead, as the Labour Day holiday approaches, logistics and transportation may be constrained, and scrap arrivals may continue to be suppressed. Additionally, after some steel mills restock before the holiday, inventory consumption will lead to stable or slightly increased demand for scrap. Therefore, the scrap market is expected to remain stable to strong next week, but due to the many external uncertainties, there is still some volatility risk in the scrap market. 1. 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